How menstrual migraine prediction works

For many people, migraines are linked to the menstrual cycle. You may already have noticed that your headaches tend to come around the same time each month. You are not imagining it. There is a real reason behind it, and MigraineMe uses that pattern to warn you ahead of time.

This article explains the idea in plain language. You do not need to remember any of this to use the app. The app does the maths for you.

Why migraines come around your period

Just before your period starts, the level of a hormone called oestrogen drops sharply. For many people, that sudden drop sets off a migraine. The pain often arrives on the last day or two before bleeding starts, or on the first one or two days of bleeding.

This is called a menstrual migraine, and it is very common.

The window MigraineMe watches

Based on this hormone pattern, the highest-risk days are usually:

Some people also get migraines in the days right after their period, when hormones are still settling. Others have no link at all. The app learns your own pattern over time.

How the app predicts your high-risk days

Once you have told MigraineMe two things, it can start predicting.

  1. The start date of your last period. You set this on the Menstruation settings screen (see the "Setting your cycle length" article).
  2. Your usual cycle length. Most people fall between 21 and 35 days. The app suggests 28 if you are not sure.

From those two numbers, the app works out when your next period is likely to start. It then adds extra risk points to your risk gauge on the days leading up to that date, and on the first day or two of bleeding.

What you will see

On the home screen, the risk gauge is the colourful dial showing today's migraine risk. When you are in the high-risk window around your period, you will notice:

This gives you a heads-up. You can plan a quieter day, take your usual preventive steps, or have your relief medication close at hand.

The risk curve

If you are curious, you can see the exact shape MigraineMe uses.

  1. Open the Monitor tab.
  2. Tap the Menstruation card.
  3. Scroll down to Menstruation Risk Curve.

You will see a small bar chart with 15 bars. The middle bar is the predicted period day. Bars to the left are the days before. Bars to the right are the days after. The taller a bar, the more risk it adds.

You can tap any bar to change its value if you want to fine-tune things. Most people leave it on the default and it works well.

It gets more accurate over time

The first prediction is based on averages. As you log more periods inside MigraineMe (and the app sees more of your migraines), it learns your personal pattern. After a few months, the warnings become much more reliable.

A gentle reminder

The prediction is a guide, not a guarantee. Some cycles vary, and other things can affect migraine timing too (sleep, weather, stress, food). If a high-risk day passes with no migraine, that is a good day. If one comes when the gauge was low, log it anyway. The app uses everything you log to get better.

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Still stuck? Write to us at help@migraineme.app

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